Soccer goals betting market – specific player to score:
The soccer betting markets have evolved a lot and these days you can bet on a specific player to score. This is a secondary market that is usually available only to big games. The usual reasons for that are the credibility of the markets which determines the betting limits. We’ll explain more in our upcoming betting markets and limits guide.
Let’s understand how to bet on a specific top scorer to profit with your knowledge of football betting.
Football goals betting market: basic dynamics
The odds of this market work just like other markets: the more likely something is to happen – in the eyes of the betting markets – the worse the odds available.
So top scorers will have much lower odds than players that hardly ever score. In the coming derby between Real Madrid and Barcelona, the odds for Benzema and Lewandowski to score are 1.9 and 1.8 respectively.
The odds for Ferland Mendy and Sergio Busquets to score twice are 500.0 in each case. The market usually has odds even for players likely to begin benched. So you must take into account that while there are odds available, some players may not even play even one minute.
How to spot value in the goals betting markets
There are some interesting things that you can do to anticipate good value bets. The odds usually reflect the past of the market and the real-life soccer events. So players with low odds are those that are effectively scoring lots of goals. The current odds for Benzema and Lewandowski reflect how they have – in the eyes of the market – more than 50% of chance to score goals each.
But let’s say you follow a team closely. And let’s imagine, for example, that Mariano Díaz is being subbed very often, and he’s missing shots but not by much. He’s shooting more and more and that has been happening for like 5 matches. Sometimes the markets don’t pick these things, especially if you follow a lower league.
Stuff that is almost impending, but didn’t happen, will often have much more interesting odds than what everyone expects to happen.
That applies to all football betting markets: yellow and red cards, the number of corner kicks, and even the performance of a team. If a team is improving technically, is creating more chances, but is still losing games, but not losing their momentum to improve, when they eventually start winning, it’ll take some time for the markets to adjust the odds.
Professional bettors make millions by being ahead of everyone else, including the sportsbooks.
Keep an eye on our site for other betting guides including how to bet on yellow and red cards and how to bet on basic markets like 1×2 or Asian Handicap.